Thorsten Meyer analyzes Jack Clark’s recent essay, revealing a bivalent forecast for AI development with 60% odds by 2028 and implications for the field.
The Ghost Story Became a Forecast.
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Artificial Intelligence
383 posts
Saturation. The ten-essay framework, closed.
The ten-essay European sovereign LLM framework is now complete, with no further structural insights expected before key 2026 milestones.
EuroHPC. The compute substrate.
Analysis of EuroHPC’s compute substrate, its capabilities, limitations, and implications for Europe’s AI ambitions amid recent developments in 2026.
Portfolio. The synthesis.
A comprehensive analysis of six institutional approaches to European sovereign AI, highlighting strategic insights ahead of the August 2026 enforcement deadline.
Apertus. The architectural template.
Apertus, developed by the Swiss AI Initiative, is a new open, multilingual, federal-research model aligning with European regulations, setting a template for sovereign AI.
Aleph Alpha. The retrospective case.
A detailed analysis of Aleph Alpha’s strategic pivot, funding, and eventual acquisition, highlighting key lessons for Europe’s sovereign AI efforts.
Engineering Is Automated. Research Is the Residual.
Recent developments show AI can automate much of engineering, but research remains less automated. Experts see a shifting landscape in AI R&D capabilities.
The Coding Singularity Is Real — and Steeper Than Clark Presented
Recent data confirms the coding singularity is underway, with AI systems now handling most routine software engineering tasks at near-human levels, and the trajectory accelerating.
Mistral. The fourth path.
Mistral, a Paris-based AI firm, raised over $830M in 2026, becoming Europe’s leading commercial AI player, but still trails US models on complex reasoning.
Minerva. The opposite path.
Italy’s Minerva-3B, trained from scratch on 2.5 trillion tokens, scored just 4.9% on Italian school exams, raising questions about native-language investment.
